In the wake of the Israeli government eliminating the judiciary’s oversight of government and ministerial actions by means of the reasonableness standard, predictions abound about the implications on various fronts. Amidst the concerns about Israeli democracy, IDF preparedness, and Israeli social cohesion are concerns about the implications for U.S.-Israel relations. While the House of Representatives declared just last week that “the United States will always be a staunch partner and supporter of Israel” by a vote of 419-9, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu passed the reasonableness law on Monday after repeated warnings by President Joe Biden about the dangers of doing so absent a wide consensus, which did not exist. The vote also came amidst a period of notably frosty relations between Biden and Netanyahu, a steady stream of statements of concern from members of Congress about the direction of Israeli democracy and the undermining of the commonality of shared values, and multiple exhortations by Israeli MKs for the U.S. to butt out of Israel’s business. All of this raises understandable questions about whether the warnings of damage to the U.S.-Israel relationship are about to manifest themselves, or whether they will dissipate in the face of a relationship that is too institutionalized at all levels and too big to fail.

Anyone hoping for a revolution in U.S.-Israel relations is going to be disappointed. Irrespective of Biden’s obvious frustration and his efforts to get Netanyahu to shift course, his restrained reaction to Monday’s vote was a clear signal that he has no intention of overturning the apple cart. The White House’s statement following the reasonableness law’s passage described it as “unfortunate,” and the National Security Council dubbed the debates over the law—and by definition all of the associated upheaval—as “a healthy part of a vibrant democracy.” In the course of a White House briefing on Monday recapping President Isaac Herzog’s visit to the U.S., an NSC official reconfirmed that Biden and Netanyahu will meet before the end of the year. On the security front, last week the U.S. sent F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, warships, and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Persian Gulf in a clear signal to Iran, which will be rightly interpreted as an alignment between the U.S. and Israel on taking a more hawkish stance for deterrence purposes. The Biden administration is not going to rethink its stance on security assistance to Israel because of the judicial overhaul, and it is also not going to react with punitive measures. The White House’s reaction and much of Congress’ reaction will look no different than past U.S.-Israel disputes, where there is a period of tension marked by slightly more heated rhetoric but little beyond verbal disagreements.

But the fact that U.S.-Israel relations will keep humming along largely undisturbed does not mean that this will be a blip on the radar. In the longer term, Netanyahu’s decision to forge ahead with the overhaul over U.S. warnings and in the face of massive opposition at home will have real consequences on this side of the ocean. Those consequences will not be felt immediately, but that does not mean that they will be less consequential. The warnings from Biden and others about undermining shared democratic values are not just sloganeering, and while it will take time for the American system to absorb that Israel has changed, that realization is going to filter down across all levels of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

While support for Israel among American evangelicals is rooted in deep religious traditions about how the creation of the modern State of Israel is proof of divinity and biblical authenticity, for other Americans—Jews and non-Jews—it is rooted in a vision of Israel in which it mirrors a just and democratic U.S. That is the foundation not only of support for American security assistance to Israel, but of the U.S.-Israel coordination and friendship that contributes to joint sister city programs, trade missions, cultural exchanges, and more. Those who view U.S.-Israel relations as being only about security and intelligence are missing a much larger picture. All of these other aspects of U.S.-Israel relations are the ones most endangered by the reasonableness law and anything that comes next, because the widespread view of Israel as a liberal democracy that they depend upon is being shattered.

Governors of both red and blue states lead state delegations on economic missions to Israel because Israel’s democratic standing and independent judiciary are seen as providing a favorable investment climate that also makes Americans feel good about supporting a fellow democracy. Politicians support anti-BDS efforts and legislation because it strikes them and many of their constituents as outrageous that Israel—not only an ally, but a like-minded liberal ally—should be targeted. The ongoing 56-year occupation of the West Bank, which has no prospect of ending and is intentionally being deepened and hardened, comes in for less criticism because it is seen as a security necessity for a democratic country facing off against non-democratic and ideologically radical foes. The widespread conviction that Israel is a democracy and shares American democratic values rests underneath nearly every aspect of the relationship. As Americans see Israelis in the streets accusing their government of dictatorship, while American Jewish organizations decry the Israeli government’s illiberalism and American officials from the president on down warn that the shared values are at risk, American public opinion will move away from those long-standing views of what Israel is and what it stands for.

Public opinion tends to move slowly, as do societal shifts, but when they do, they are hard to move back. What is going on in Israel today will be felt in the U.S. down the road, when there is not as much public clamor to stand behind Israel in a unique way, when politicians do not automatically associate Israel with an unwavering commitment to democracy, when it is no longer overwhelmingly obvious that the U.S. should be a staunch partner and supporter of Israel in a non-transactional way. If that day comes—and Monday’s vote makes it more likely—it will be traced back to the Israeli government’s behavior over the past seven months. Once the view of Israel as a robust democracy is shattered beyond those who are consumed with Israeli-Palestinian issues and the occupation, the unique nature of U.S.-Israel relations will shatter with it.